张魁, 陈作志, 黄梓荣, 许友伟. 时滞差分模型与剩余产量模型的应用比较以南大西洋长鳍金枪鱼为例[J]. 南方水产科学, 2015, 11(3): 1-6. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-0780.2015.03.001
引用本文: 张魁, 陈作志, 黄梓荣, 许友伟. 时滞差分模型与剩余产量模型的应用比较以南大西洋长鳍金枪鱼为例[J]. 南方水产科学, 2015, 11(3): 1-6. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-0780.2015.03.001
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ZHANG Kui, CHEN Zuozhi, HUANG Zirong, XU Youwei. Comparison of delay difference model and surplus production model applied to albacore (Thunnus alalunga) in the South Atlantic Ocean[J]. South China Fisheries Science, 2015, 11(3): 1-6. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-0780.2015.03.001
Citation: ZHANG Kui, CHEN Zuozhi, HUANG Zirong, XU Youwei. Comparison of delay difference model and surplus production model applied to albacore (Thunnus alalunga) in the South Atlantic Ocean[J]. South China Fisheries Science, 2015, 11(3): 1-6. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-0780.2015.03.001
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时滞差分模型与剩余产量模型的应用比较以南大西洋长鳍金枪鱼为例

Comparison of delay difference model and surplus production model applied to albacore (Thunnus alalunga) in the South Atlantic Ocean

    摘要
  • 摘要: 将剩余产量模型和时滞差分模型分别应用于南大西洋长鳍金枪鱼（Thunnus alalunga）渔业数据，结果表明，比起剩余产量模型，时滞差分模型拟合的单位捕捞努力渔获量（catch per unit effort，CPUE）曲线能够更好地捕捉到CPUE随着时间的波动。赤池信息量准则（Akaike information criterion，AIC）的结果显示，时滞差分模型比Schaefer模型的评估效果要好。时滞差分模型评估的最大可持续产量（maximum sustainable yield，MSY）中值为22 490 t，80%置信区间为21 756~23 408 t；剩余产量模型评估的MSY中值为27 520 t，80%的置信区间为26 116~28 959 t。生物学参考点的结果表明目标群体在1985年以前资源状态较好；1985年~2005年的20年里处于过度捕捞状态；2005年后资源状况得到改善，但仍需加强管理。比起剩余产量模型，时滞差分模型给出了更为有效且保守的评估结果。

     

    Abstract: We applied surplus production model and delay difference model to analyze the data of the southern Atlantic albacore (Thunnus alalunga) stock. Results show that the delay difference model captured annual fluctuation of catch per unit effort (CPUE) better than the Schaefer model. Akaike information criterion (AIC) also reveals that delay difference model performed better. We calculated an 80% percentile confidence interval of maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of 21 756~23 408 t (median 22 490 t) and 26 116~28 959 t (median 27 520 t) by delay difference model and Schaefer model, respectively. Results of biological reference points show that the southern Atlantic albacore stock was in a good state before 1985 buthad beenoverfished from 1985 to 2005; after that, it was rebuilt gradually but must be taken care of. The delay difference model gave more effective and conservative results than the surplus production model.

     

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