姚祖兵, 刘宇明, 洪李川, 刘怡峰, 王硕, 谢松光, 宋一清. 基于组合物种分布模型的长棘海星与褐拟鳞鲀适宜生境及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 南方水产科学. DOI: 10.12131/20230201
引用本文: 姚祖兵, 刘宇明, 洪李川, 刘怡峰, 王硕, 谢松光, 宋一清. 基于组合物种分布模型的长棘海星与褐拟鳞鲀适宜生境及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 南方水产科学. DOI: 10.12131/20230201
YAO Zubing, LIU Yuming, HONG Lichuan, LIU Yifeng, WANG Shuo, XIE Songguang, SONG Yiqing. Habitat suitability of crown-of-thorns starfish and Titan triggerfish and their response to climate change based on ensemble species distribution model[J]. South China Fisheries Science. DOI: 10.12131/20230201
Citation: YAO Zubing, LIU Yuming, HONG Lichuan, LIU Yifeng, WANG Shuo, XIE Songguang, SONG Yiqing. Habitat suitability of crown-of-thorns starfish and Titan triggerfish and their response to climate change based on ensemble species distribution model[J]. South China Fisheries Science. DOI: 10.12131/20230201

基于组合物种分布模型的长棘海星与褐拟鳞鲀适宜生境及其对气候变化的响应

Habitat suitability of crown-of-thorns starfish and Titan triggerfish and their response to climate change based on ensemble species distribution model

  • 摘要: 全球气候变化导致的海洋环境改变将对海洋生物生境适生区产生潜在影响。利用“珊瑚杀手”——长棘海星(Acanthaster planci) 及其重要捕食者——褐拟鳞鲀 (Balistoides viridescens) 的发生数据及环境变量,基于BIOMOD2建模平台中的7个模型算法构建物种分布组合模型,模拟它们在当前环境及未来不同气候情景下的潜在适宜生境分布情况。结果表明:1) 长棘海星与褐拟鳞鲀投票平均 (Committee Averaging, CA) 和概率加权平均 (Weighted Mean of Probabilities, WM) 组合物种分布模型的真实技巧统计 (True skill statistic, TSS)、受试者操作特征曲线 (Receiver operating curve, ROC) 值分别为0.96、0.99与0.97、0.99,优于多数单一模型结果,可较好地预测两物种的空间分布格局。2) 温度和离岸距离是影响长棘海星分布的主要因素,而影响褐拟鳞鲀空间分布的主要因素为温度、溶解氧和离岸距离。3) 当前长棘海星与褐拟鳞鲀潜在适宜生境主要位于澳大利亚大堡礁、印度尼西亚、中国南海以及红海海域,褐拟鳞鲀的潜在适宜生境比长棘海星更广泛,未来气候情景条件下,两物种的潜在分布范围总体均有所扩大,且有向高纬度地区迁移的趋势。

     

    Abstract: The alterations in marine environments caused by global climate change have potential impacts on the suitable habitat zones for marine organisms. Based on the occurrence data for crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster planci) and its key predator Titan triggerfish (Balistoides viridescens), in addition with environmental variables, we developed ensemble species distribution models by using seven algorithmic frameworks within the BIOMOD2 platform. These models predict current and future potential habitat suitability under various climate change scenarios. The results show that: 1) The ensemble species distribution model of Committee Averaging (CA) and Weighted Mean of Probabilities of probabilities (WM) for crown-of-thorns starfish and Titan triggerfish show that the true skill statistic (TSS) and receiver operating curve (ROC) values are 0.96, 0.99 and 0.97, 0.99, respectively, which outperforms the single model and provides accurate predictions of the spatial distribution patterns for both species. 2) Temperature and land distance are the primary factors influencing the spatial distribution of crown-of-thorns starfish, while temperature, dissolved oxygen and land distance are crical for Titan triggerfish. 3) The current potentially suitable habitats for both species are primarily located in the Great Barrier Reef of Australia, Indonesia, the South China Sea and the Red Sea. Titan triggerfish's potential suitable habitats are more extensive than those of crown-of-thorns starfish. Under future climate scenarios, both species' potential ranges are expected to broaden and migrate towards higher latitudes.

     

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