基于Two-stage GAM的大亚湾斑鰶产卵场时空分布特征研究

Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of Konosirus punctatus spawning grounds in Daya Bay Based on a Two-stage GAM

  • 摘要: 为分析海洋鱼类繁殖对环境变化的响应,了解斑鰶 (Konosirus punctatus) 早期补充过程,本研究基于2022年5月—2023年4月大亚湾鱼类产卵、育幼场周年逐月采样调查数据,分析大亚湾斑鰶的繁殖周期,使用椭圆重心分析识别其产卵重心及迁移轨迹,利用两阶段广义可加模型 (Two-stage Generalized Additive Model) 探讨影响斑鰶产卵场分布与环境因子之间的关系。结果表明,大亚湾斑鰶的繁殖期为12月至翌年4月,主要繁殖期为1—3月。斑鰶鱼卵时空分布格局存在显著差异 (p<0.05),高丰度区主要集中分布于大亚湾西北和西南近岸海域。大亚湾斑鰶产卵场重心是围绕鸡心岛、许洲、园洲之间进行迁移,形成从中央列岛北部至西北近岸海域,然后到西南海域再迁移至中央列岛的轨迹。空间异质性结果与椭圆重心分析结果一致,丰度分布呈西北部向东南部递减的趋势。Two-stage GAM分析显示月份、经纬度和浮游动物丰度是影响斑鰶鱼卵出现概率的主要因素,对斑鰶鱼卵的出现概率均具有显著影响 (p<0.01);月份、浮游动物丰度、经纬度、表温、表盐和离岸距离是影响斑鰶鱼卵丰度分布的主要因素。浮游动物丰度对斑鰶鱼卵的分布为显著的线性促进作用。斑鰶鱼卵高丰度区表层温度范围为18~24 ℃,表层盐度为32.5‰~34.0‰。研究结果为大亚湾斑鰶产卵场的调查保护及大亚湾海域精细化管理提供重要科学依据。

     

    Abstract: To analyze the response of marine fish reproduction to environmental changes and understand the early recruitment process of Konosirus punctatus, we investigated its reproductive cycle, identified spawning gravity centers and migration trajectories via center of gravity analysis, and explored the relationship between egg distribution and environmental factors using a Two-stage Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Data were collected from year-round sampling in the spawning and nursery grounds investigation of Daya Bay from May 2022 to April 2023. The results indicate that the reproductive period of K. punctatus in Daya Bay extended from December to the following April, with the peak spawning season occurring from January to March. Significant spatiotemporal variations were observed in egg distribution (p<0.05), with high-abundance areas mainly concentrated in the northwestern and southwestern nearshore waters. The spawning gravity center of K. punctatus in Daya Bay migrated around Jixin Island, Xuzhou, and Yuanzhou, forming a trajectory from the northern Central Islands to the northwestern nearshore waters, then to the southwestern waters, eventually returning to the Central Islands. The spatial heterogeneity results were consistent with the elliptic centroid analysis, showing a decreasing abundance trend from the northwest to the southeast. The two-stage GAM reveals that month, longitude, latitude, and zooplankton abundance were the main factors influencing the probability of egg occurrence (p<0.01). Month, zooplankton abundance, longitude, latitude, sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and offshore distance significantly affect abundance distribution of K. punctatus eggs. Zooplankton abundance exhibited a significant positive linear effect on egg distribution. The SST and SSS of the high-abundance areas ranged from 18°C to 24°C and 32.5‰ to 34.0‰, respectively. The findings provide an important scientific basis and support for the investigation and protection of K. punctatus spawning grounds in Daya Bay, as well as for the refined management of the Daya Bay sea area.

     

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