鲣鱼生长的时间变异性对资源评估的影响

influences of temporal variability in growth of skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) on fisheries stock assessment

  • 摘要: 海洋鱼类生长受气候变化、环境压力及捕捞行为等多重因素影响,呈现非稳态(non-stationary)特征。传统资源评估普遍基于稳态假设,忽略生长时间变异性,可能导致关键管理参考点估计出现偏差,从而影响渔业管理决策。本研究以东大西洋鲣鱼 (Katsuwonus pelamis) 为例,将海表面温度引入生长参数动态建模以量化生长时间变异性,进而探究鲣鱼的生长时间变异性对资源评估的影响。结果显示,纳入生长时间变异性的模型估计的产卵群体生物量整体较低,且趋势更为稳定;忽略该变异性会更高估计产卵群体生物量以及低估捕捞死亡率,导致最大可持续产量 (Maximum sustainable yield, MSY) 呈现负偏差 (−38.24%),同时相对产卵群体生物量 (SSBcur/SSBMSY) 和相对捕捞死亡率 (Fcur/FMSY) 呈现明显的负偏差和正偏差。结果表明,渔业资源评估中纳入生长时间变异性,可更全面反映种群动态可能性,为渔业管理提供更稳健的科学依据,规避因误判导致的资源过度开发风险。

     

    Abstract: Fish growth exhibits non-stationary characteristics in response to multiple factors, including climate change, environmental stress, and fishing pressure. Traditional stock assessments are generally based on stationarity assumptions, neglecting temporal growth variability, which may lead to biases in the estimation of key management reference points and consequently affect fisheries management decisions. In this study, the Eastern Atlantic skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) was selected as a case study. Sea surface temperature was incorporated into the dynamic modeling of growth parameters to quantify temporal growth variability, and the impacts of such variability on stock assessments were further investigated. The results show that models incorporating temporal growth variability estimated overall lower and more stable spawning stock biomass. In contrast, neglecting temporal growth variability tended to overestimate spawning stock biomass and underestimate fishing mortality, resulting in a negative bias (−38.24%) in the maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Meanwhile, the relative spawning stock biomass (SSBcur/SSBMSY) and relative fishing mortality (Fcur/FMSY) showed significant negative and positive biases, respectively. This study demonstrates that incorporating temporal growth variability into fisheries stock assessments helps to more comprehensively reflect the potential population dynamics and provides more robust scientific support for fisheries management, thereby avoiding the risk of overexploitation caused by misjudgment.

     

/

返回文章
返回