Spatio-temporal distribution of habitat patterns of Scomber japonicus in East China Sea under future climatic conditions
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摘要: 为探讨全球气候变化对东海鲐鱼 (Scomber japonicus) 栖息地时空分布的影响，减缓气候变化对鲐鱼渔场的不利影响，基于CMIP6气候模式输出的2.5 m (Temp_2.5 m)、25 m (Temp_25 m) 和50 m (Temp_50 m) 水温数据分析3种未来气候情境下 (SSP126、SSP370和SSP585) 东海鲐鱼栖息地的时空变化。结果表明，SSP126情境下，2015—2100年渔场内所有水层温度整体变化幅度较小。SSP370和SSP585情境下，各水层温度均明显上升。3个水层温度在2015—2020、2055—2060和2095—2100年具有明显空间变化。2015—2100年东海鲐鱼渔场的栖息地指数 (Habitat suitability index, HSI) 和适宜栖息地面积比例在SSP126、SSP370和SSP585情境下整体呈下降趋势，而不适宜栖息地面积呈上升趋势。不同气候变化情境下，东海鲐鱼适宜栖息地在2015—2020、2055—2060和2095—2100年3个时间段内主要分布在122°E—126°E、28°N—30°N范围内，不适宜栖息地主要分布在渔场中部；此外，鲐鱼适宜栖息地重心具有向北移动的趋势。研究表明，在未来全球变暖的气候背景下东海海域不易形成适宜的鲐鱼栖息地。Abstract: To investigate the effects of global climate change on the habitat pattern of Scomber japonicus in the East China Sea and to slow down the adverse effects of climate change on the fishing ground of S. japonicus, based on the water temperature data of 2.5 m (Temp_2.5 m), 25 m (Temp_25 m) and 50 m (Temp_50 m) output by CMIP6 climate model, we analyzed the spatio-temporal changes of the habitat in the East China Sea under three future climatic conditions (SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585). The results show that for SSP126, Temp_2.5 m, Temp_25 m and Temp_50 m showed relatively minor changes. For SSP370 and SSP585, Temp_2.5 m, Temp_25 m and Temp_50 m showed an overall upward trend. The three factors also changed in the spatial distribution during 2015−2020, 2055−2060 and 2095−2100. The habitat suitability index (HSI) on the fishing ground and proportion of suitable habitat of S. japonicus in the East China Sea from 2015 to 2100 showed a similar downward trend under SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585 conditions. However, the proportion of unsuitable habitat area from 2015 to 2100 increased under SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585 conditions. The suitable habitats of S. japonicus were mainly distributed in the waters of 122°E−126°E and 28°N−30°N during 2015−2020, 2055−2060 and 2095−2100, while the unsuitable habitat was mainly distributed in the middle of fishing ground. In addition, the gravity center of suitable habitat of S. japonicus tended to move northward. The results suggest that the global warming is unfavorable for the formation of suitable habitat of S. japonicus in the East China Sea.
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图 1 不同气候情境下2015—2100年鲐鱼渔场内不同水层水温的年际变化
Figure 1. Interannual variation of water temperature at different depths in fishing ground of S. japonicus during 2015−2100 under different climatic conditions
图 2 不同气候情境下2015—2020、2055—2060和2095—2100年内鲐鱼渔场内不同水层水温的平均值
Figure 2. Average water temperature at different depths in fishing ground of S. japonicus during 2015−2020, 2055−2060 and 2095−2100 under different climatic conditions
图 3 不同气候情境下2100和2015年鲐鱼渔场内不同水层水温差值的空间分布
Figure 3. Spatial distribution of water temperature difference at different depths in fishing ground of S. japonicus in 2100 and 2015 under different climate conditions
图 4 不同气候情境下2015—2100年东海鲐鱼平均栖息地指数、适宜栖息地及不适宜栖息地面积比例
Figure 4. Interannual variation of average habitat suitability index, percentages of suitable and unsuitable habitat area of S. japonicus in East China Sea under different climatic conditions during 2015−2100
图 5 不同气候情境下东海鲐鱼栖息地指数在2015—2020、2055—2060和2095—2100年的空间分布
Figure 5. Spatial distribution of habitat suitability index of S. japonicus in East China Sea during 2015−2020, 2055−2060 and 2095−2100 under different climatic conditions
图 6 不同气候情境下2015—2020、2055—2060和2095—2100年时间段内东海鲐鱼适宜栖息地经纬度重心及其空间分布图
Figure 6. Longitude and latitude center of gravity and its spatial distribution of suitable habitat of S. japonicus in East China Sea during 2015−2020, 2055−2060 and 2095−2100 under different climatic conditions
图 7 不同气候情境下2015—2020、2055—2060和2095—2100年内各环境因子适宜性指数 (SI≥0.6) 重心
Figure 7. Suitability index (SI≥0.6) center for each environmental factor during 2015−2020, 2055−2060 and 2095−2100 under different climatic conditions
表 1 不同气候情境的不同时间段内东海鲐鱼正常与不适宜栖息地面积变化
Table 1. Changes of normal and unsuitable habitat area of S. japonicus in East China Sea in different time periods under different climatic conditions
模态
SSP年份
Year渔场正常栖息地面积
HS/%面积增减
ID_HS/%渔场不适宜栖息地面积
UNSH/%面积增减
ID_UNSH/%SSP126 2015—2020 24.38 — 32.80 — 2055—2060 21.70 −10.99 35.48 +8.17 2095—2100 21.33 −12.51 35.84 +9.27 SSP370 2015—2020 24.07 — 33.11 — 2055—2060 19.48 −19.07 37.70 +13.86 2095—2100 11.39 −52.68 45.79 +38.29 SSP585 2015—2020 24.18 — 32.99 — 2055—2060 18.16 −24.89 39.02 +18.28 2095—2100 7.45 −69.19 49.73 +50.74 注：HS代表渔场正常栖息地面积；ID_SH代表2055—2060和2095—2100年渔场正常栖息地面积相对于2015—2020年正常栖息地面积的增减；UNSH代表渔场不适宜栖息地面积；ID_UNSH代表2055—2060和2095—2100年渔场不适宜栖息地面积相对于2015—2020年不适宜栖息地面积的增减。 Note: HS represents the area of normal habitat of fishing ground; ID_SH represents the increase or decrease of the normal habitat area of the fishing ground during 2055–2060 and 2095–2100 compared with the normal habitat area during 2015–2020; UNSH represents the area of unsuitable habitat of fishing ground; ID_UNSH represents the increase or decrease of the area of unsuitable habitat of fishing ground during 2055–2060 and 2095–2100 compared with that during 2015–2020. 
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