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基于丰度指数和恢复力的渔业资源评估:以日本海和东海带鱼为例

张魁

张魁. 基于丰度指数和恢复力的渔业资源评估:以日本海和东海带鱼为例[J]. 南方水产科学, 2022, 18(4): 1-9. doi: 10.12131/20210213
引用本文: 张魁. 基于丰度指数和恢复力的渔业资源评估:以日本海和东海带鱼为例[J]. 南方水产科学, 2022, 18(4): 1-9. doi: 10.12131/20210213
ZHANG Kui. Fish stock assessment based on abundance index and resilience: a case study of largehead hairtail in Sea of Japan and East China Sea[J]. South China Fisheries Science, 2022, 18(4): 1-9. doi: 10.12131/20210213
Citation: ZHANG Kui. Fish stock assessment based on abundance index and resilience: a case study of largehead hairtail in Sea of Japan and East China Sea[J]. South China Fisheries Science, 2022, 18(4): 1-9. doi: 10.12131/20210213

基于丰度指数和恢复力的渔业资源评估:以日本海和东海带鱼为例

doi: 10.12131/20210213
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目 (2018YFD0900906);国家自然科学基金项目 (31602157)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    张魁:张 魁 (1987—),男,副研究员,博士,从事渔业资源评估与种群动力学研究。E-mail: zhangkui@scsfri.ac.cn

  • 中图分类号: S 937.3

Fish stock assessment based on abundance index and resilience: a case study of largehead hairtail in Sea of Japan and East China Sea

  • 摘要: 为了解日本海和东海带鱼 (Trichiurus japonicus) 渔业资源状况,利用一种基于丰度指数的评估模型 (Abundance maximum sustainable yields, AMSY) 对2个海域的带鱼资源进行了评估。结果显示,2个海域的带鱼渔业在20世纪90年代至21世纪00年代的大部分时间里相对资源量水平 (B/BMSY) 低于1,而相对捕捞死亡水平 (F/FMSY) 高于1,处于过度捕捞状态。AMSY模型里相对最大可持续产量 (MSYq) 和MSY水平下的捕捞死亡系数 (FMSY) 等参数评估结果对不同内禀增长率 (r) 先验分布范围比较敏感,而B/BMSYF/FMSY等生物学参考点评估结果对特定年份的相对资源量水平 (Bt/k) 先验分布范围的下限设置比较敏感。AMSY模型仅需要单位捕捞努力量渔获量 (Catch per unit effort, CPUE) 数据、评估对象的r和特定年份的Bt/k水平先验信息,可以评估基于MSY的生物学参考点 (B/BMSYF/FMSY),适合无统计产量数据的海域内渔业资源评估。
  • 图  1  1981—2009 年日本海带鱼大型底拖网和近岸底拖网渔业单位捕捞努力量渔获量

    Figure  1.  CPUE of largehead hairtail fisheries by large bottom trawl and offshore bottom trawl in Sea of Japan from 1981 to 2009

    图  2  东海带鱼渔业单位捕捞努力量渔获量

    Figure  2.  CPUE of largehead hairtail by marine motorized fishing vessels and pair-trawler in East China Sea

    图  3  基于大型底拖网单位捕捞努力量渔获量的日本海带鱼渔业评估结果

    注:a. 实际 CPUE 数据 (加粗实线) 与平滑后的 CPUE 数据 (灰色实线) 趋势; b. 灰色点表示 AMSY 模型中检验过的所有 r-kq 参数组合,黑色点表示通过 MCMC 过滤器检验的 r-kq 参数组合;c. 放大后的 r-kq 参数组合区域,红色十字星中心为所有参数组合的中值,红色线为95%置信区间;d—f. 加粗实线分别表示 C/MSY、F/FMSYB/BMSY,水平虚线表示 3 个值为 1,虚折线为 95% 置信区间,红色虚线表示在此资源量水平 (B/BMSY<0.5) 之下资源补充会受损。后图同此。

    Figure  3.  Output of AMSY for largehead hairtail fishery in Sea of Japan using CPUE of large bottom trawl

    Note: a. Trend between actual CPUE data (With thick solid line) and smoothed CPUE data (With gray solid line); b. The cloud of light grey dots indicates the r-kq pairs that were tested by AMSY. The black dots represent viable r-kq pairs that passed the MCMC filters; c. The magnified area was occupied by the viable r-kq pairs. The red cross indicates the most likely r-kq pair at its center as median of the cloud of black dots, with approximate 95% confidence limits in log space; d—f. The bold curves show a time series of the median relative catch (C/MSY), fishing pressure (F/FMSY), and relative stock size (B/BMSY) predicted by AMSY, respectively. The dotted curves are the approximate 95% confidence limits. The dashed red line indicates the stock size below which recruitment (B/BMSY<0.5) may be impaired. The same case in the following figures.

    图  4  基于近岸小型底拖网单位捕捞努力量渔获量的日本海带鱼渔业评估结果

    Figure  4.  Output of AMSY for largehead hairtail fishery in Sea of Japan using CPUE of offshore bottom trawl

    图  5  基于机动渔船总单位捕捞努力量渔获量的东海带鱼渔业评估结果

    Figure  5.  Output of AMSY for largehead hairtail fishery in East China Sea using CPUE of total motorized fishing vessels

    图  6  基于双拖监测单位捕捞努力量渔获量的东海带鱼渔业评估结果

    Figure  6.  Output of AMSY for largehead hairtail fishery in East China Sea using CPUE of pair-trawler

    图  7  日本海大型底拖网带鱼渔业F/FMSYB/BMSY在不同r先验分布条件下的评估结果

    Figure  7.  Estimated F/FMSY and B/BMSY for large bottom trawl largehead hairtail fishery in Sea of Japan under different r prior distributions

    图  8  日本海大型底拖网带鱼渔业参数在不同B2000/k先验分布条件下的评估结果

    Figure  8.  Estimated F/FMSY and B/BMSY for large bottom trawl largehead hairtail fishery in Sea of Japan under different B2000/k prior distributions

    表  1  日本海和东海带鱼渔业参数评估结果

    Table  1.   Estimated results of fisheries parameters for largehead hairtail in Sea of Japan and East China Sea

    参数
    Parameter
    日本海大型
    底拖网带鱼渔业
    Large bottom trawl
    fishery of largehead
    hairtail in
    Sea of Japan
    日本海近岸小型
    底拖网带鱼渔业
    Offshore bottom
    trawl fishery of largehead
    hairtail in Sea
    of Japan
    基于机动渔船总CPUE的
    东海带鱼渔业
    Largehead hairtail
    fishery in East
    China Sea based on
    total CPUE of motorized
    fishing vessels
    基于双拖监测CPUE的
    东海带鱼渔业
    Largehead hairtail
    fishery in East
    China Sea based on
    CPUE of pair-trawler
    相对环境容量 kq 39.0 (33.5, 45.9) 22.4 (18.8, 26.9) 0.632 (0.514, 0.765) 0.493 (0.325, 0.718)
    最大可持续产量 MSYq 5.57 (4.53, 6.81) 3.18 (2.60, 3.94) 0.0895 (0.0696, 0.111) 0.0662 (0.0469, 0.0924)
    内禀增长率 r 0.572 (0.449, 0.712) 0.566 (0.450, 0.728) 0.566 (0.443, 0.730) 0.537 (0.413, 0.691)
    MSY水平下的捕捞死亡系数 FMSY 0.286 (0.224, 0.356) 0.283 (0.225, 0.364) 0.283 (0.221, 0.365) 0.269 (0.206, 0.345)
    2000年产量与最大可持续产量比值 C2000/MSY 0.990 (0.596, 1.51) 0.589 (0.261, 1.06) 0.696 (0.257, 1.26) 0.837
    2000年相对捕捞死亡水平 F2000/FMSY 2.68 (1.38, 3.92) 1.34 (0.610, 2.56) 1.58 (0.680, 3.22) 1.53
    2000年相对资源量 B2000/BMSY 0.370 (0.261, 0.533) 0.440 (0.362, 0.701) 0.442 (0.323, 0.712) 0.546
    注:参数评估结果为中值,括号内数字为该参数的95%置信区间。
    Note: The estimated parameters are presented as the median values, and the numbers in the brackets are the 95% confidence intervals.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  日本海大型底拖网带鱼渔业参数在不同r先验分布条件下的评估结果

    Table  2.   Estimated results of fisheries parameters for large bottom trawl largehead hairtail fishery in Sea of Japan under different r prior distributions

    参数
    Parameter
    r−U (0.32, 0.72)r−U (0.42, 0.72)r−U (0.42, 0.82)r−U (0.32, 0.82)
    相对环境容量 kq 38.3 (33.0, 45.8) 39.0 (33.5, 45.9) 38.9 (33.6, 46.3) 38.4 (33.2, 45.7)
    最大可持续产量 MSYq 5.14 (3.82, 7.10) 5.57 (4.53, 6.81) 6.08 (4.75, 7.96) 5.56 (4.07, 7.94)
    内禀增长率 r 0.537 (0.385, 0.745) 0.572 (0.449, 0.712) 0.626 (0.480, 0.824) 0.579 (0.408, 0.846)
    MSY水平下的捕捞死亡系数 FMSY 0.269 (0.192, 0.373) 0.286 (0.224, 0.356) 0.313 (0.240, 0.412) 0.290 (0.204, 0.432)
    2008年产量与最大可持续产量比值 C2008/MSY 0.211 (0.102, 0.497) 0.208 (0.104, 0.488) 0.206 (0.103, 0.490) 0.210 (0.096, 0.502)
    2008年相对捕捞死亡水平 F2008/FMSY 1.58 (0.480, 3.27) 1.56 (0.552, 3.07) 1.56 (0.563, 3.06) 1.58 (0.488, 3.22)
    2009年相对资源量 B2009/BMSY 0.136 (0.0762, 0.241) 0.135 (0.0751, 0.246) 0.135 (0.0748, 0.241) 0.136 (0.261, 0.533)
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  日本海大型底拖网带鱼渔业参数在不同B2000/k先验分布条件下的评估结果

    Table  3.   Estimated results of fisheries parameters for large bottom trawl largehead hairtail fishery in Sea of Japan under different B2000/k prior distributions

    参数
    Parameter
    B2000/k−U (0.05, 0.4)B2000/k−U (0.15, 0.4)B2000/k−U (0.15, 0.5)B2000/k−U (0.05, 0.5)
    相对环境容量 kq 40.5 (34.1, 49.2) 39.0 (33.5, 45.9) 38.8 (33.5, 46.6) 39.7 (33.9, 48.1)
    最大可持续产量 MSYq 5.66 (4.62, 6.94) 5.57 (4.53, 6.81) 5.56 (4.50, 6.93) 5.65 (4.58, 6.81)
    内禀增长率 r 0.560 (0.439, 0.697) 0.572 (0.449, 0.712) 0.573 (0.449, 0.726) 0.569 (0.443, 0.706)
    MSY水平下的捕捞死亡系数 FMSY 0.280 (0.219, 0.349) 0.286 (0.224, 0.356) 0.287 (0.224, 0.363) 0.285 (0.221, 0.353)
    2008年产量与最大可持续产量比值 C2008/MSY 0.189 (0.098, 0.473) 0.208 (0.104, 0.488) 0.203 (0.099, 0.491) 0.193 (0.092, 0.502)
    2008年相对捕捞死亡水平 F2008/FMSY 1.50 (0.473, 3.090) 1.56 (0.552, 3.07) 1.54 (0.518, 3.17) 1.50 (0.471, 3.07)
    2009年相对资源量 B2009/BMSY 0.129 (0.0717, 0.236) 0.135 (0.0751, 0.246) 0.135 (0.0737, 0.243) 0.132 (0.0733, 0.239)
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2021-08-05
  • 修回日期:  2021-09-15
  • 录用日期:  2021-10-19
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-05-09
  • 刊出日期:  2022-08-05

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