基于丰度指数和恢复力的渔业资源评估：以日本海和东海带鱼为例

张魁

doi:10.12131/20210213

基于丰度指数和恢复力的渔业资源评估：以日本海和东海带鱼为例

doi: 10.12131/20210213

张魁

中国水产科学研究院南海水产研究所/农业农村部外海渔业可持续利用重点实验室，广东广州 510300

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目 (2018YFD0900906)；国家自然科学基金项目 (31602157)

详细信息

作者简介:
张魁：张　魁 (1987—)，男，副研究员，博士，从事渔业资源评估与种群动力学研究。E-mail: zhangkui@scsfri.ac.cn

中图分类号: S 937.3
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-08-05
- 修回日期: 2021-09-15
- 录用日期: 2021-10-19
- 网络出版日期: 2022-05-09
- 刊出日期: 2022-08-05

Fish stock assessment based on abundance index and resilience: a case study of largehead hairtail in Sea of Japan and East China Sea

ZHANG Kui

South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences/Key Laboratory for Sustainable Utilization of Open-Sea Fishery, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Guangzhou 510300, China

摘要

摘要: 为了解日本海和东海带鱼 (Trichiurus japonicus) 渔业资源状况，利用一种基于丰度指数的评估模型 (Abundance maximum sustainable yields, AMSY) 对2个海域的带鱼资源进行了评估。结果显示，2个海域的带鱼渔业在20世纪90年代至21世纪00年代的大部分时间里相对资源量水平 (B/B_MSY) 低于1，而相对捕捞死亡水平 (F/F_MSY) 高于1，处于过度捕捞状态。AMSY模型里相对最大可持续产量 (MSY_q) 和MSY水平下的捕捞死亡系数 (F_MSY) 等参数评估结果对不同内禀增长率 (r) 先验分布范围比较敏感，而B/B_MSY和F/F_MSY等生物学参考点评估结果对特定年份的相对资源量水平 (B_t/k) 先验分布范围的下限设置比较敏感。AMSY模型仅需要单位捕捞努力量渔获量 (Catch per unit effort, CPUE) 数据、评估对象的r和特定年份的B_t/k水平先验信息，可以评估基于MSY的生物学参考点 (B/B_MSY和F/F_MSY)，适合无统计产量数据的海域内渔业资源评估。
- 带鱼 /
- 单位捕捞努力量渔获量 /
- 剩余产量模型 /
- 数据缺乏 /
- 资源评估
Abstract: In order to understand the exploitation status of largehead hairtail (Trichiurus japonicus) fisheries in the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea, we used a fishery assessment model based on abundance index (Abundance maximum sustainable yields, AMSY) to assess the two fisheries. The results show that during most of the 1990s and 2000s, the relative biomass levels (B/B_MSY) of the largehead hairtail fisheries in the two seas were lower than 1, but the relative fishing mortality levels (F/F_MSY) were higher than 1, which indicates an overfished state. The estimated parameters such as relative maximum sustainable yield (MSY_q) and relative fishing mortality at MSY level (F_MSY) of the AMSY model were more sensitive to different prior distribution ranges of intrinsic rate of increase (r), while the estimated biological reference points (BRPs), i.e., F/F_MSY and B/B_MSY were more sensitive to the lower limit of different prior distribution ranges of relative biomass level (B_t/k). AMSY can estimate the BRPs of the target fisheries under MSY framework using only catch per unit effort (CPUE) data, prior information of r and relative biomass level for a specific year. AMSY is appropriate for fishery stock assessment in the sea areas where lack statistical data of catches.
- Trichiurus japonicus /
- Catch per unit effort /
- Surplus production models /
- Lack of data /
- Stock assessment

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图 1 1981—2009 年日本海带鱼大型底拖网和近岸底拖网渔业单位捕捞努力量渔获量

Figure 1. CPUE of largehead hairtail fisheries by large bottom trawl and offshore bottom trawl in Sea of Japan from 1981 to 2009

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图 2 东海带鱼渔业单位捕捞努力量渔获量

Figure 2. CPUE of largehead hairtail by marine motorized fishing vessels and pair-trawler in East China Sea

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图 3 基于大型底拖网单位捕捞努力量渔获量的日本海带鱼渔业评估结果

注：a. 实际 CPUE 数据 (加粗实线) 与平滑后的 CPUE 数据 (灰色实线) 趋势； b. 灰色点表示 AMSY 模型中检验过的所有 r-k_q 参数组合，黑色点表示通过 MCMC 过滤器检验的 r-k_q 参数组合；c. 放大后的 r-k_q 参数组合区域，红色十字星中心为所有参数组合的中值，红色线为95%置信区间；d—f. 加粗实线分别表示 C/MSY、F/F_MSY 和 B/B_MSY，水平虚线表示 3 个值为 1，虚折线为 95% 置信区间，红色虚线表示在此资源量水平 (B/B_MSY<0.5) 之下资源补充会受损。后图同此。

Figure 3. Output of AMSY for largehead hairtail fishery in Sea of Japan using CPUE of large bottom trawl

Note: a. Trend between actual CPUE data (With thick solid line) and smoothed CPUE data (With gray solid line); b. The cloud of light grey dots indicates the r-k_q pairs that were tested by AMSY. The black dots represent viable r-k_q pairs that passed the MCMC filters; c. The magnified area was occupied by the viable r-k_q pairs. The red cross indicates the most likely r-k_q pair at its center as median of the cloud of black dots, with approximate 95% confidence limits in log space; d—f. The bold curves show a time series of the median relative catch (C/_MSY), fishing pressure (F/F_MSY), and relative stock size (B/B_MSY) predicted by AMSY, respectively. The dotted curves are the approximate 95% confidence limits. The dashed red line indicates the stock size below which recruitment (B/B_MSY<0.5) may be impaired. The same case in the following figures.

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图 4 基于近岸小型底拖网单位捕捞努力量渔获量的日本海带鱼渔业评估结果

Figure 4. Output of AMSY for largehead hairtail fishery in Sea of Japan using CPUE of offshore bottom trawl

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图 5 基于机动渔船总单位捕捞努力量渔获量的东海带鱼渔业评估结果

Figure 5. Output of AMSY for largehead hairtail fishery in East China Sea using CPUE of total motorized fishing vessels

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图 6 基于双拖监测单位捕捞努力量渔获量的东海带鱼渔业评估结果

Figure 6. Output of AMSY for largehead hairtail fishery in East China Sea using CPUE of pair-trawler

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图 7 日本海大型底拖网带鱼渔业F/F_MSY和B/B_MSY在不同r先验分布条件下的评估结果

Figure 7. Estimated F/F_MSY and B/B_MSY for large bottom trawl largehead hairtail fishery in Sea of Japan under different r prior distributions

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图 8 日本海大型底拖网带鱼渔业参数在不同B₂₀₀₀/k先验分布条件下的评估结果

Figure 8. Estimated F/F_MSY and B/B_MSY for large bottom trawl largehead hairtail fishery in Sea of Japan under different B₂₀₀₀/k prior distributions

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表 1 日本海和东海带鱼渔业参数评估结果

Table 1. Estimated results of fisheries parameters for largehead hairtail in Sea of Japan and East China Sea

参数 Parameter	日本海大型底拖网带鱼渔业 Large bottom trawl fishery of largehead hairtail in Sea of Japan	日本海近岸小型底拖网带鱼渔业 Offshore bottom trawl fishery of largehead hairtail in Sea of Japan	基于机动渔船总CPUE的东海带鱼渔业 Largehead hairtail fishery in East China Sea based on total CPUE of motorized fishing vessels	基于双拖监测CPUE的东海带鱼渔业 Largehead hairtail fishery in East China Sea based on CPUE of pair-trawler
相对环境容量 k_q	39.0 (33.5, 45.9)	22.4 (18.8, 26.9)	0.632 (0.514, 0.765)	0.493 (0.325, 0.718)
最大可持续产量 MSY_q	5.57 (4.53, 6.81)	3.18 (2.60, 3.94)	0.0895 (0.0696, 0.111)	0.0662 (0.0469, 0.0924)
内禀增长率 r	0.572 (0.449, 0.712)	0.566 (0.450, 0.728)	0.566 (0.443, 0.730)	0.537 (0.413, 0.691)
MSY水平下的捕捞死亡系数 F_MSY	0.286 (0.224, 0.356)	0.283 (0.225, 0.364)	0.283 (0.221, 0.365)	0.269 (0.206, 0.345)
2000年产量与最大可持续产量比值 C₂₀₀₀/MSY	0.990 (0.596, 1.51)	0.589 (0.261, 1.06)	0.696 (0.257, 1.26)	0.837
2000年相对捕捞死亡水平 F₂₀₀₀/F_MSY	2.68 (1.38, 3.92)	1.34 (0.610, 2.56)	1.58 (0.680, 3.22)	1.53
2000年相对资源量 B₂₀₀₀/B_MSY	0.370 (0.261, 0.533)	0.440 (0.362, 0.701)	0.442 (0.323, 0.712)	0.546
注：参数评估结果为中值，括号内数字为该参数的95%置信区间。 Note: The estimated parameters are presented as the median values, and the numbers in the brackets are the 95% confidence intervals.

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表 2 日本海大型底拖网带鱼渔业参数在不同r先验分布条件下的评估结果

Table 2. Estimated results of fisheries parameters for large bottom trawl largehead hairtail fishery in Sea of Japan under different r prior distributions

参数 Parameter	r−U (0.32, 0.72)	r−U (0.42, 0.72)	r−U (0.42, 0.82)	r−U (0.32, 0.82)
相对环境容量 k_q	38.3 (33.0, 45.8)	39.0 (33.5, 45.9)	38.9 (33.6, 46.3)	38.4 (33.2, 45.7)
最大可持续产量 MSY_q	5.14 (3.82, 7.10)	5.57 (4.53, 6.81)	6.08 (4.75, 7.96)	5.56 (4.07, 7.94)
内禀增长率 r	0.537 (0.385, 0.745)	0.572 (0.449, 0.712)	0.626 (0.480, 0.824)	0.579 (0.408, 0.846)
MSY水平下的捕捞死亡系数 F_MSY	0.269 (0.192, 0.373)	0.286 (0.224, 0.356)	0.313 (0.240, 0.412)	0.290 (0.204, 0.432)
2008年产量与最大可持续产量比值 C₂₀₀₈/MSY	0.211 (0.102, 0.497)	0.208 (0.104, 0.488)	0.206 (0.103, 0.490)	0.210 (0.096, 0.502)
2008年相对捕捞死亡水平 F₂₀₀₈/F_MSY	1.58 (0.480, 3.27)	1.56 (0.552, 3.07)	1.56 (0.563, 3.06)	1.58 (0.488, 3.22)
2009年相对资源量 B₂₀₀₉/B_MSY	0.136 (0.0762, 0.241)	0.135 (0.0751, 0.246)	0.135 (0.0748, 0.241)	0.136 (0.261, 0.533)

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表 3 日本海大型底拖网带鱼渔业参数在不同B₂₀₀₀/k先验分布条件下的评估结果

Table 3. Estimated results of fisheries parameters for large bottom trawl largehead hairtail fishery in Sea of Japan under different B₂₀₀₀/k prior distributions

参数 Parameter	B₂₀₀₀/k−U (0.05, 0.4)	B₂₀₀₀/k−U (0.15, 0.4)	B₂₀₀₀/k−U (0.15, 0.5)	B₂₀₀₀/k−U (0.05, 0.5)
相对环境容量 k_q	40.5 (34.1, 49.2)	39.0 (33.5, 45.9)	38.8 (33.5, 46.6)	39.7 (33.9, 48.1)
最大可持续产量 MSY_q	5.66 (4.62, 6.94)	5.57 (4.53, 6.81)	5.56 (4.50, 6.93)	5.65 (4.58, 6.81)
内禀增长率 r	0.560 (0.439, 0.697)	0.572 (0.449, 0.712)	0.573 (0.449, 0.726)	0.569 (0.443, 0.706)
MSY水平下的捕捞死亡系数 F_MSY	0.280 (0.219, 0.349)	0.286 (0.224, 0.356)	0.287 (0.224, 0.363)	0.285 (0.221, 0.353)
2008年产量与最大可持续产量比值 C₂₀₀₈/MSY	0.189 (0.098, 0.473)	0.208 (0.104, 0.488)	0.203 (0.099, 0.491)	0.193 (0.092, 0.502)
2008年相对捕捞死亡水平 F₂₀₀₈/F_MSY	1.50 (0.473, 3.090)	1.56 (0.552, 3.07)	1.54 (0.518, 3.17)	1.50 (0.471, 3.07)
2009年相对资源量 B₂₀₀₉/B_MSY	0.129 (0.0717, 0.236)	0.135 (0.0751, 0.246)	0.135 (0.0737, 0.243)	0.132 (0.0733, 0.239)

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