Prediction of potential invasion areas of tilapia in China under climate change

Tilapia, an economically significant fish introduced to China, exhibits strong environmental adaptability and resource utilization capabilities. However, its invasive potential has also posed severe threats to native ecosystems, and future climate change uncertainties further complicate the prevention and control of tilapia invasion. Thus, we selected three tilapia species widely distributed in South China (Oreochromis niloticus, O. mossambicus, Coptodon zillii) to predict their potential invasion areas during three periods (Current, 2041–2060, 2081–2100) and four climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) by using the MaxEnt model and CMIP6 climate data. The results reveal that: 1) Guangdong and Guangxi Provinces are the key regions for tilapia management. 2) The area of potential high-risk invasion areas might increase in the future. 3) These high-risk areas are likely to shift toward higher latitudes. 4) The synergistic effects of winter temperature and precipitation are the primary environmental drivers of the expansion of high-risk invasion areas.